The Squeeze, Under Oath
GameStop and AMC taught a generation of traders its folklore — the gamma squeeze, the whale alert, the earnings lottery ticket. I rebuilt both option chains minute by minute, added two more market panics and 535 earnings nights for cross-examination, and put the legends under oath. The answers are drier than the folk songs, and the toll at the door turns out to be the real villain.
Right, Eventually
In 2025 I decided the most leveraged bitcoin proxy on the board was going down — a story about megawatts, miners, and a crowded church. The stock fell 60%. So I rebuilt the MSTR put chain and measured how many ways there were to be right about that and still not get paid.
The Trade I Didn’t Take
In January 2025 I wrote a research note on Micron at $87 and asked an AI what could make it go up 200%. Then I bought nothing, and it went up 1,000%. So I rebuilt the entire MU option chain and ran the trade I didn’t take — six times, once for each version of me.
The Time I Almost Got Rich
I traded the meme-stock autumn of 2021 on two theses I still think were right. Four years later I rebuilt the account from raw records — every fill, every quote, every minute — and found the day, the hour, and the holding period that decided the outcome.