Right, Eventually
In 2025 I decided the most leveraged bitcoin proxy on the board was going down — a story about megawatts, miners, and a crowded church. The stock fell 60%. So I rebuilt the MSTR put chain and measured how many ways there were to be right about that and still not get paid.
The Trade I Didn’t Take
In January 2025 I wrote a research note on Micron at $87 and asked an AI what could make it go up 200%. Then I bought nothing, and it went up 1,000%. So I rebuilt the entire MU option chain and ran the trade I didn’t take — six times, once for each version of me.
The Time I Almost Got Rich
I traded the meme-stock autumn of 2021 on two theses I still think were right. Four years later I rebuilt the account from raw records — every fill, every quote, every minute — and found the day, the hour, and the holding period that decided the outcome.